Modelling the current and future geographical distribution of Combretum glutinosum Perr. ex DC. Under climate change in Burkina Faso: Future challenges and conservation opportunities,

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Résumé

Combretum glutinosum is a keystone species prevalent in the West Africa savannas, particularly thriving in arid ecosystems. It plays a vital role in local livelihoods, providing wood, fodder, and medicinal resources. However, there is a critical lack of data on its effective conservation and sustainable use amidst rapidly changing ecological conditions. This study aimed to assess the potential impacts of climate change on C. glutinosum in Burkina Faso. To carry out this study, we integrated a dataset of 3052 occurrences records of C. glutinosum with 11 environmental variables to model its current ecological niche. For future climate projections, we employed two advanced climate models (CNRM-CM6-1 and HadGEM3-GC31-LL) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) across two-time horizons (2070 and 2100). The Maxent modeling approach was used to predict both current and future distributions of this species. Our findings indicate that the average temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio9) emerged as the most environmental variable affecting the model’s predictions. Currently, 90.62% of Burkina Faso’s territory is classified as highly suitable for the growth of C. glutinosum. According to future climate projections, the CNRM model predicts 8.86% and 22.21% decrease in highly suitable habitats in the SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios, respectively, for 2070. The HadGEM3-GC31-LL model forecasts declines of 30.17% and 33.66% by 2070 for the respective scenarios. These findings show that it is evident that improved management practices are imperative to ensure sustainable management of C. glutinosum in the face of ongoing environmental change.

Mots-clés

Arid ecosystems, Burkina Faso, Climate models, Combretum glutinosum, Conservation, Savanna